Ethan Explains Vote Your Conscience 5/4/16

Ted Cruz drops out of the race after Donald J. Trump won Indiana. Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton in Indiana, yet Sec. Clinton is still the presumptive nominee. I say vote your conscience in the primary, regardless of what everyone else is saying who will win.

From Nate Silver‘s FiveThirtyEight:

The Democratic race remains fundamentally unchanged after tonight’s win by Sanders. 
Yes, his victory was somewhat surprising, given that all of the polls had Clinton winning and by an average of 7 percentage points. 
And yes, Sanders has promised to fight on in the primary until perhaps the convention. 
The problem for the Sanders campaign remains delegate math and demographics.

And

The psychology of Democratic voters continues to look detached from the reality of delegate math. 
Trump and Clinton are both pretty much presumptive nominees at this point, but Trump is winning Indiana with about 51 percent of the vote tonight while Clinton is taking only 47 percent and could end up even lower. 
As Trump consolidates Republican support, it’s more apparent than ever that Clinton needs a strong Sanders endorsement to unite the Democratic base.

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